Silverlight - Flash Killer or a Flash in the Pan? (Part 3)

Posted by Phil Martin

Previously we talked about Silverlight 1.0's shortcomings, and then how version 2 (beta) addresses most of them by adding support for 'real' languages.

Now for the bottom line:

1. Does Silverlight give the browsing world anything that Flash cannot do? Not at this time, at least nothing the world cares about. No point awarded.

2. Does Flash give the browsing world anything that Silverlight cannot do? Yes - access to local hardware (webcam, microphone, etc). 1 point awarded to Flash.

3. Does Flash have any other advantage over Silverlight in the browser world? Yes - Version 7 or better is installed on over 99% of the world's browsing computers (according to Adobe http://www.adobe.com/products/player_census/flashplayer/version_penetration.html). Microsoft seems to be stingy on reporting Silverlight penetration so who knows? Point to Flash.

4. Does Silverlight give the development world anything that Flash cannot do? Yes - support for REAL languages, and an IDE that is actually usable. And that whole evil timeline thing is secondary. 1 point awarded to Silverlight.

5. Does Flash give the development world anything that Silverlight cannot do? No. In fact, in my opinion they have the world's worst IDE ever invented. Real Intellisense anyone? How about highlighting a row of code without having time to sit back and watch the latest episode of Heroes? How about strongly-typed variables? How about a real language??? 1 point awarded to Silverlight.

Totals:

Browsing World - Flash ahead by 2.
Development World - Silverlight is up by 2.

So it's a wash overall for now. But to kill Flash, or at least be a real competitor, what is going to have to change? In our case, a 'real competitor' can be measured by penetration, or the percentage of browsers that have Silverlight installed. Ah, but there's the rub - until Silverlight penetration increases, developers will not want to use Silverlight (why create content that most people cannot see?) However, until web developers start using Silverlight, web viewers have no reason to install Silverlight, and penetration won't increase. So we're caught in a tautology of sorts, a catch-22. But remember - at one time Flash was in the exact same position, and it caught on because of the sizzle it provided to web pages. So, to beat that curve, Microsoft has to provide a reason for the browsing world to WANT to use Silverlight. If they can convince web viewers to install Silverlight because that is the only way to get something that is really desirable, then we're good to go. Microsoft tried that with the '08 Olympics on NBC's web site, and I am sure it greatly increased penetration - we'll have to wait for the numbers to see by how much. Unfortunately, NBC provided an option to view the coverage without installing Silverlight, so the penetration might not be as much as it could have been.

So Microsoft has two options - broadcast more events (or provide must-have content) that require Silverlight, or enhance Silverlight to do something that Flash cannot do - something that is so cool viewers will flock to download Silverlight. As I said before, in the pre-Flash days, Flash had no real competitors and were the only game in town. But Silverlight is fighting an uphill battle against Flash, and they need to pull out a secret weapon - soon. The inability to access webcams is not helping them either. Live video is becoming more important every day.

The bottom line is that it is up to Microsoft to generate the critical mass needed to tip the scales in Silverlight's favor. We here at Deyo are a Microsoft shop, so we are naturally interested in Silverlight as it allows us to reuse existing functionality inside of a rich experience environment. For use with a limited audience, we are developing several Silverlight-based applications. I hope that Microsoft's secret weapon arrives soon.

Posted September 15, 2008 4:26 PM